Isi yosekubika ingufu za batiriibyashizweho bizagera kuri gigawatt 92 - 247 gigawatt - amasaha - mu 2025, ukuyemo hydro pompe, nkuko amakuru aheruka kubitangaza BloombergNEF. Ibyo byerekana gusimbuka 23% kuva 70GW yashyizweho muri 2024, ubwayo yikubye hafi imibare 2023. Ubu umurenge umaze guhuza amateka ya kane yikurikiranya - umwaka urangiye. Iterambere ryiyongera ryumwaka ryicara hafi 14.7% kugeza 2035, icyo gihe iyongerwaho ryumwaka rigomba kugera kuri 220GW / 972GWh. Ubushobozi bwashyizwe hamwe kwisi yose buzagera kuri terawatt 2 hagati ya 2030. Yego rero-inzira zirakura. Ikibazo gishimishije cyane ni aho nuburyo, ninde urangirira kuruhande rutari rwo rwo gukura.
Umwaka Ibintu Byose Byinshi
2025 numwaka wa gigawatt - umushinga wamasaha.
Ntabwo ari ahantu hasanzwe. Ibikoresho bya GWh - byashyizweho cyangwa byavunitse muri Arabiya Sawudite, Afurika y'Epfo, Ositaraliya, Ubuholandi, Chili, Kanada, Ubwongereza. Saudite yahujije umushinga wa 7.8GWh mu cyumweru gishize ku mbuga eshatu zo mu majyepfo y’iburengerazuba - Sungrow yatanze sisitemu zirenga 1.500 mu minsi 58. Iyo imaze gushyirwamo ingufu, ihinduka sisitemu nini ya bateri ikora ku isi. Inyandiko yabanjirije yamaze amezi umunani.
BYD yasinyanye amasezerano na 12.5GWh ku mbuga eshanu zo muri Arabiya Sawudite mu ntangiriro zuyu mwaka. Hithium yafashe indi 4GWh. Hagati ya - 2025, hafi 13GWh ya gride - ububiko bunini bwakoraga cyangwa bukarangiza kubaka mu Bwami, hakaba hateganijwe ko 33.5GWh mu 2026. Ibyo bizatuma Arabiya Sawudite iba isoko rya gatatu mu bubiko bunini ku isi nyuma y’Ubushinwa na Amerika. Igihugu kitari kibaho muburyo bwo kubika ingufu hashize imyaka itatu.
Ubutaliyani bwahindutse bucece isoko yuburayi bushimishije. Sisitemu yashyizweho yazamutseho 23% mumwaka ushize ubaze, ariko 52% kubushobozi bwingufu na 40% kubisohoka mumashanyarazi - sisitemu nini yimiterere ikurura impuzandengo. Ibikoresho bibiri 800MWh yingirakamaro - ibihingwa byapimwe byaje kumurongo muri 2024 byonyine. Ubushakashatsi bw’ingufu za Aurora bwita amahirwe y’icyatsi kibisi mu Burayi muri iki gihe, bukubita ndetse n’Ubwongereza bukuze ariko bukaba bwuzuye abantu.
Ubushinwa buracyayobora imbonerahamwe
Kurenga kimwe cya kabiri cya 2025 kwisi yose gigawatt yiyongera ku Bushinwa. Ntabwo ari amakuru, ariko igipimo gikomeza gutangaza.
Pekin yakuyeho manda yo kubika imishinga mishya ishobora kuvugururwa mu ntangiriro zuyu mwaka - icyerekezo cyagombye kuba cyadindije ibintu. Ntabwo. Intara zintara zikomeza gutangaza ibyo zisabwa. Muri Nzeri, hagaragaye intego nshya yo guhunika igihugu, ishimangira ko gukuraho manda ari imirimo yo mu rugo aho kuba umwiherero wa politiki. Ihinduka ryerekeza ku isoko - ryatewe no kuzamuka binyuze mu bucuruzi bw’ibibanza na gahunda y’indishyi mu ntara. Niba ibyo bikora neza kuruta manda biracyari ikibazo gifunguye. Ubushinwa bukunda kumenya ibintu.
Inganda z'Abashinwa zigenzura hafi 80% by'isoko rya batiri ku isi. 20% isigaye akenshi yishingikiriza kubushinwa uko byagenda kose. Ubu bwiganze bugera muri buri nguni yo gutanga ibikoresho - ibikoresho bya anode, gutunganya grafite, LFP cathodes. CATL, BYD, EVE Ingufu, CALB, Hithium: aya mazina agaragara kumatangazo yimishinga kuva Riyadh kugeza Roma kugeza Queensland.
Ikibazo kirenze ubushobozi buracyakomeza. Ubushobozi bwo gukora bwageze kuri 2 TWh ugereranije na 1.2 TWh yibisabwa. Abakora Cathode babuze igihombo - bakora imyanya mumyaka itatu ikurikiranye. Bamwe mu babikurikirana mu nganda bakoresha ijambo "uruhare" - irushanwa ryangiza ryungura abaguzi mugihe barekuye ababikora. Pekin yahamagaye inama zihutirwa hamwe nabaproducer bambere muri uyu mwaka, bagerageza guhagarika isiganwa kugeza hasi. LFP ikoreshwa mu ikoranabuhanga ryoherezwa mu mahanga. Guverinoma irashaka ba nyampinga mu gihugu, aho kuba umwobo.
Ibigo Byinjira Injira
Hano niho ibintu bishimishije vuba.
Imishinga ya Gartner isaba amashanyarazi ikenera kwiyongera 16% muri 2025 yonyine, hanyuma ikikuba kabiri muri 2030. AI - seriveri nziza izagaragaza 44% by’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi mu 2030, aho yavuye kuri 21% uyu munsi. BloombergNEF yavuguruye ikigo cyayo cyo muri Amerika amakuru y’ingufu zisabwa hejuru ya 36% mu Kuboza - kugeza kuri gigawatt 106 muri 2035.
Nibyo hafi miliyoni 100 ingo zifite amashanyarazi, murwego rwo hejuru.
Imirongo ihuza umurongo muri Virginie imaze imyaka irindwi. Ntabwo ari amezi arindwi. Ibigo byamakuru birushanwe hamwe nibindi byose kubushobozi buke bwo guhuza imiyoboro, transformateur, switchgear, hamwe nabanyamashanyarazi babishoboye. Icyuho ntikiri igishoro cyangwa kubaka - kirimo kubona uruhushya rwo gucomeka.
Ububiko bwa Batiri bugaragara nkubutumwa - ibikorwa remezo bikomeye kuri uru rwego. Ibigo byamakuru bikora 24/7 hamwe na swing nini isaba ko umurage wumurage utakozwe. Batteri irashobora guhindura ihindagurika, impinga nziza, gutanga backup idafite moteri ya mazutu, na - cyane cyane - reka ibikoresho byongere imbaraga mukugabanya ibisabwa byo kuzamura gride.
Wood Mackenzie avuga ko 53GW y "imizigo minini" harimo ibigo byamakuru ndetse n’ibikorwa byo gukora bizaza kumurongo mu myaka icumi iri imbere. Kubaha imbaraga bisaba, mumagambo yabo, inzira "yose yavuzwe haruguru". Ububiko ni igice cyibyo "hejuru."
Ibiciro by'Ibiciro ni Mess
Isoko ryo muri Amerika ryagombaga kongeramo 15 - 19GW yububiko bwingirakamaro mu 2025.Ibyo byari mbere ya Mata.
Mu ntangiriro za Mata, Trump yazamuye ibiciro fatizo ku bicuruzwa byatumijwe mu Bushinwa kugera kuri 145%. Noneho kuruhuka igice muri Gicurasi byagabanije ibiciro kugeza 30% kugeza hagati - Kanama. Noneho amahoro yinyongera kuri grafite - 93.5% hejuru ya 25% Biden - imirimo yigihe - yagaragaye muri Nyakanga. Ibikoresho bifatika bya anode bihura niperereza rirwanya. Igipimo cyiza cyibiciro kuri selile ya lithium-ion yo mubushinwa kubika ingufu muri iki gihe ikorera ahantu hagati ya 54% na 104%, ukurikije ibyiciro nicyumweru ubaza.
Isesengura rya BNEF - isesengura ryerekana ryerekana ibiciro 54% byinjiza ibiciro bine - isaha ya sisitemu yo kugura amasaha 30% muri 2025, kugeza $ 266 / kWt. Ibipimo byabo 145% byerekana ko 51-74% yo hasi yumwaka hagati ya 2025 na 2027 ugereranije nibiteganijwe.
Anza Renewables yatangaje muri kamena ko ibiciro bya sisitemu ya AC byatanzwe hejuru ya 56-68% ugereranije nurwego rwa Mutarama, bitewe nigice cyisoko. Ntabwo ari ikosa. Imishinga irahagarara, amasezerano yongeye kuganira, iminyururu itangwa.
Akajagari gafite ifeza igoramye: kohereza byihutiye gutsinda igihe ntarengwa. Ibicuruzwa byaturutse muri Koreya y'Epfo byiyongereyeho 225% by'igihembwe - hejuru ya - igihe abaterankunga bashakaga ibicuruzwa bitari -. Ibigega byegeranijwe. Gutinda - imishinga yicyiciro yihutiye gutangira. Imibare 2025 isa neza neza kuko buriwese yari yiteze ko 2026 isa nabi.
Abanyakoreya bakora - LG Ingufu zumuti, Samsung SDI, SK Kuri - bahagaze kugirango buzuze icyuho imisoro itera. LG ikora ikigo cyonyine cya LFP gikora muri Amerika, ku ruganda rwacyo rwa Michigan. Samsung na SK bahindura imirongo cyangwa bagasinya amasezerano yo gutanga. Ibikenewe murugo birashobora guhatira kwimuka uko byagenda kose. Ikibazo ni igihe, igipimo, no kumenya niba ibyo bigo bishobora guhuza ibiciro byubushinwa. Ibimenyetso bigezweho: ntabwo mubyukuri.
Uburayi burakanguka
Ubutaliyani bwongeyeho 6GWh yububiko bushya muri 2024 - umwaka wa 58% - kuri - umwaka wiyongereye - hamwe ningirakamaro - igipimo kingana na 3.4GWh. Nibyo kwiyongera inshuro 15 mubyinshi byongeweho ugereranije numwaka ushize. Muri Nzeri 2025, igihugu cyari gifite 848.814 sisitemu yo guhunika amashanyarazi ihwanye na 17.5GWh y’ingufu.
Ubwongereza bwageze kuri 5.9GW / 8.2GWh yubushobozi bwa BESS bukora mu ntangiriro zuyu mwaka, hamwe na 6.3GW / 13.2GWh byemewe kandi bikora binyuze mu iterambere. Imishinga yubushakashatsi bwingufu za Aurora 10.3GW yashyizwe muburayi uyumunsi ikura igera kuri 55GW muri 2030 na 126GW muri 2050.
Ubudage bwarenze miliyoni ebyiri za sisitemu za batiri zahujwe muri Nyakanga, hamwe na 14.5GW y’amashanyarazi yashyizweho na 22GWh yubushobozi buhari. Finlande yashyizeho 20% yo kugabanya imisoro kuri PV - hiyongereyeho -. Rumaniya yasoneye sisitemu yo kubika amafaranga atandukanye ya gride, igabanya amafaranga yo gukora 20-30%. Uyu mwaka Ubuholandi bwageneye miliyoni 100 z'amayero ku nkunga yo kohereza batiri muri uyu mwaka.
Urusobemiyoboro - rwarenze ububiko bwagabanijwe mu Burayi bwa mbere mu 2024. Moteri yo gukura irahinduka.
InfoLink umushinga isoko ryu Burayi wongeyeho 27GWh muri 2025, uzamuka 41% umwaka - ku mwaka - umwaka. Ubutaliyani bugumana ikamba ryabwo, Ubudage buza ku mwanya wa kabiri, kandi ibikorwa - byapimwe muri Espagne, mu Bubiligi, no mu bindi bihugu bigenda bitandukanya imiterere y’Ubwongereza - Ubudage - Inyabutatu y’Ubutaliyani.
Tuvuge iki ku bindi bisobanuro?
Batteri zitemba zabonye ibihuha. Ukwiriye bamwe.
Ingufu za Eos Ingufu na Invinity Sisitemu zungukiwe na gahunda ya LDES Cap yo mu Bwongereza. ESS Tech yashyizeho gahunda ya 10MW / 100MWh y'icyuma - muri Californiya muri Nzeri, ishyigikira amasaha 12 -. Form Energy yamenetse ku ruganda rwayo rwa mbere rw’ubucuruzi rukora ibyuma byo mu kirere muri Virijiniya y’Uburengerazuba, yibanda kuri sisitemu yo gusohora amasaha 100.
Ikibazo: ntanimwe muribi bigo byabonye inyungu zikorwa. Eos yasimbutse amafaranga 240% umwaka - ku mwaka - muri H 1 2025 ariko nanone yongera igihombo cyayo igera kuri miliyoni 207.8. Isoko rya chimie ritari - rirahari ariko rikomeza kuba rito. Abaterankunga benshi bakomezanya nibikorwa murwego.
Litiyumu - ion isanzwe ifite 70% ya 64.7GWh yumunsi - umunsi (8 - 12) Ibindi byose - bateri zitemba, umwuka wamazi, ubushyuhe, gravit-igabanya 10% isigaye.
BNEF ivuga ko ububiko bwo mu kirere bushyushye kandi bugabanijwe bwafunze icyuho cya capex hamwe na lithium - ion mu gihe kirekire: $ 232 / kWh na $ 293 / kWt, ugereranije na $ 304 / kWt kuri sisitemu enye - mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe mu 2023. Ariko kuziba icyuho no gutsinda isiganwa nibintu bitandukanye. Litiyumu - ion ikomeza gutera imbere. Intego iragenda.
Californiya yo muri 2027 itangwa ryamasoko agera kuri 1GW ya 12 - ububiko bwamasaha ikuraho batiyeri ndende - igihe kirekire lithium - ion-guhitamo politiki nkana yo guha ikoranabuhanga rigezweho. Niba bagaragaza ko hari ikintu gisigaye kigaragara.
Nibyo, Yego - Biragaragara
Isoko riratera imbere. Icyo kibazo nticyari ikibazo.
Umwaka wongeyeho buri mwaka. Ubushobozi bwo guhunika bwihuta. Amasoko akura agira uruhare mu kongera imigabane - Uburasirazuba bwo hagati na Afurika byazamutseho 381% mu bushobozi buteganijwe 2025, biba akarere kihuta cyane - kwiyongera ku isi. Ibiciro by'ipaki byagabanutseho 45% kububiko buhagaze muri 2025, bikubita $ 70 / kWt kandi bituma bateri zihenze cyane litiyumu - ion igice cyambere.
Gukura byicaye hejuru yimfatiro zoroshye, nubwo. Ubushinwa bwiganje cyane bivuze ko geopolitike ihindagurika mu buryo butaziguye. Amahoro yo muri Amerika yamaze kwerekana uburyo ibiciro bishobora kwiyongera mugihe politiki yubucuruzi ihindutse. Imirongo ihuza imirongo irambuye imyaka muri Amerika n'Ubwongereza. Ikigo gikeneye amakuru gishobora kurenga ibikorwa remezo mbere yuko ibikorwa remezo bifata.
Ariko gukura? Yego. Imibare ntisobanutse. Mordor Intelligence iteganya ko isoko rigera kuri miliyari 465 z'amadolari muri 2030. Fortune Business Insights ibona ububiko bwa batiri bwageze kuri miliyari 114 muri 2022. GM Insights ivuga ko yagutsesisitemu yo kubika ingufuisoko rirenga miriyoni 5 z'amadolari muri 2034.Ibigo bitangaza amakuru ntibishobora kumvikana ku bunini nyabwo - uburyo bwabo butandukanye cyane - ariko icyerekezo ni kimwe.
Ibibera imbere muri uko gukura bifite akamaro kanini. Niba ibyifuzo bya Arabiya Sawudite bigenda bigaragara kuri gahunda. Niba gride yu Burayi - igipimo gifata gutura. Niba inganda zabanyamerika zigeze zegera ibiciro byabashinwa. Niba abakora data center bashobora kubona ingufu mbere yuko abakiriya bagenda. Niba ubundi buryo bwa chimisties bukora icyuho cyangwa kigashira mubisobanuro.
Ibyo nibibazo bishimishije. Gukura bitanga gusa inyuma.