Kubika ingufu zihagaze bigabanya ibiciro binyuze muburyo bwinshi: kugabanya amafaranga akenewe cyane, kugabanya igihe - cya - gukoresha ubukemurampaka, guhuza ingufu zihenze zidasubirwaho, no kugabanya ishoramari ryibikorwa remezo. Sisitemu yo kubika bateri yagabanutseho 40% umwaka - hejuru ya - umwaka igera kuri $ 165 / kWt mu 2024, bituma porogaramu zikoreshwa mu bukungu.
Uburyo Ububiko bwa Bateri bugabanya amafaranga yakoreshejwe
Kugabanya ibiciro bitaziguye kubikwa ingufu zihagaze bizanwa no gucunga amafaranga. Ibigo byubucuruzi ninganda byishyura ibihano byinshi kubwo gukuramo ingufu nyinshi mugihe cyo kwishyuza - akenshi $ 10 kugeza 40 $ kuri kilowatt yibisabwa buri kwezi.
Uruganda rukora rishushanya 500 kWt mugihe cyo hejuru hamwe na $ 40 / kilo yishyurwa risabwa 20.000 $ byamafaranga asabwa buri kwezi yonyine. Gushiraho sisitemu yo kubika yogosha 150 kW kuri iyo mpinga uzigama $ 6.000 buri kwezi, cyangwa $ 72,000 buri mwaka. Ubu buhanga, bwitwa kogosha, bukora mukurekura ingufu zabitswe neza mugihe ibyo kurya byazamutse.
Ubukungu butera imbere cyane mukarere hamwe nigihe - cya - koresha ibiciro. Sisitemu yo kubika ingufu zihagaze zishyuza mugihe cyamasaha - mugihe cyamashanyarazi mugihe amashanyarazi agura 2 - 3 kumafaranga kuri kilowati, hanyuma ugasohoka mugihe cyimpera mugihe ibiciro bisimbuka kumafaranga 15-25 kuri kilowati. Ubu bukemurampaka bufata ibiciro bitandukanye hagati yigihe gito kandi kiri hejuru.
Nukuri - ishyirwa mubikorwa ryisi ryerekana ibisubizo byapimwe. Imibare yatanzwe mububiko bwingufu yerekana imbaraga zishobora kugabanuka kugiciro cya 30% kubikorwa byingufu - ibikorwa byimbaraga. Kubikoresho bifite amashanyarazi yumwaka urenga miliyoni imwe, ibi bivuze ko 300.000 $ yo kuzigama buri mwaka.
Kugabanuka kw'ikoranabuhanga ry'ikoranabuhanga Hindura agaciro kangana
Ubukungu bwibanze bwububiko buhagaze bwahindutse mumyaka icumi ishize kubera igabanuka ryibiciro bitangaje. Ibiciro byo kubika bateri byagabanutse kuva $ 375 / kWt mu 2023 bigera ku $ 165 / kWt mu 2024-byagabanutseho 40% mu mwaka umwe gusa, ibyo bikaba byagabanutse cyane kuva gukurikirana byatangira muri 2017.
Impamvu nyinshi zitwara iki kiguzi. Gukora ubushobozi burenze urugero mubushinwa, cyane cyane kuri bateri ya lithium fer fosifate (LFP), byateje amarushanwa akaze. Sisitemu yo mu Bushinwa yagereranije $ 101 / kWt mu 2024, hamwe n’imishinga imwe ya turnkey igiciro kiri munsi ya $ 85 / kWh kuri sisitemu yo kumara amasaha 4. Ikigereranyo cyo muri Amerika gikomeje kuba hejuru kuri $ 236 / kWt kubera imbaraga zinyuranye zitangwa hamwe nibisabwa n'amategeko.
Ibipimo byerekana ko bikomeje kugabanuka kugeza mu 2030.Ikigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe kongera ingufu za Laboratoire giteganya ko litiro - ion ya batiri ya porogaramu ihagaze ishobora kugera munsi ya $ 200 / kWh kuri sisitemu zashyizweho mu 2030, hamwe na sisitemu zose zashyizweho zishobora kugabanuka 50-60% kuva ku rwego rwa 2024. Ibiciro bya selile ya batiri biteganijwe ko bigabanuka byihuse kuruta ibiciro byuzuye bya sisitemu.
Kurenga ipaki ya batiri ubwayo, kuringaniza - ya - ibice bya sisitemu nabyo biratera imbere. Sisitemu yo guhindura ingufu, imicungire yubushyuhe, hamwe nubugenzuzi bwa elegitoronike byerekana hafi 40-60% yikiguzi cya sisitemu yose ariko barabona ijanisha ryagabanutse kurenza selile. Nyamara, gukora neza no kuzamura ubukungu bikomeje gusunika ibiciro hasi.
Guhindura kuva kuri nikel manganese cobalt (NMC) kuri chimiya ya lithium fer fosifate (LFP) byihutisha kugabanya ibiciro mugihe bitezimbere umutekano. Batteri ya LFP ubu yiganje mububiko bushya bwo kubika ingufu zihagaze, zitanga ikiguzi cyo hasi hamwe nubuzima burebure burigihe nubwo ingufu nke ziri hasi.
Imiyoboro - Urwego rwo kuzigama rurenze ibipimo bya buri muntu
Kubika ingufu zihagaze zitanga ikiguzi cya sisitemu irenze ibyo kuzigama kugiti cyawe kugirango bigirire akamaro amashanyarazi yose hamwe naba ratepayers.
Ibikorwa remezo byohereza no gukwirakwiza byerekana ishoramari rinini - ibikorwa byingirakamaro sisitemu zabo kugirango bikemure icyifuzo kiboneka amasaha make gusa kumwaka. Igihe gisigaye, ibikorwa remezo bicaye bidakoreshwa. Ingamba zo gushyira bateri zirengera cyangwa zikuraho miliyari zo kugura ibiciro.
Aho kwagura ubushobozi bwo kohereza kugirango ukemure imizigo ikura, ibikorwa byingirakamaro birashobora gushiraho ububiko munsi yumutungo wuzuye. Batare isohora mugihe gito cyo hejuru, ikuraho ibikenerwa byo kuzamura imiyoboro ihenze, kwagura insimburangingo, cyangwa transformateur nshya. Ububiko bwa MW 10-20 butwara miliyoni 15-30 z'amadolari birashobora gusubika imishinga yo kohereza irenga miliyoni 100.
Gukoresha gride yo muri Amerika - imishinga yo kubika ingufu zimaze gutanga miliyoni zisaga 580 z'amadolari buri mwaka kubaturage binyuze mumisoro no kwishyura ubukode bwubutaka. Nkuko kohereza byihuta storage- ububiko bwa batiri bwikubye kabiri ubushobozi muri 2023-iyi misanzu yubukungu yaguka ugereranije.
Sisitemu - imikorere myiza itera imbere binyuze muburyo bwiza bwo kwishyira hamwe. Umuyaga nizuba bitanga amashanyarazi hafi - zero marginal igiciro kimaze kubakwa, ariko imiterere yabyo yagiye isimburana mumateka yasabaga kugumya ingufu za gaze gukora nkibisubizo. Kubika ingufu zihagaze bikurura ibisekuru byinshi bishobora kuvugururwa mugihe gito - mugihe gikenewe kandi ikarekura mugihe cyimpera, bikagabanya ibikenerwa ninganda zidafite ingufu zihenze cyane.
Muri gride ya Californiya, ububiko busanzwe bukora nimugoroba mugihe izuba ryagabanutse cyane ariko ibyifuzo bikomeza kuba byinshi. Ibi birinda gutangira turbine ihenze yakora amasaha make gusa. Kuzigama hamwe kugabanura ibicanwa bya peteroli no kwirinda ibisekuruza bidakora neza birenze inyungu z'ikigo.
Kwishyira hamwe gushya gushiraho kuzigama
Isano iri hagati yo kubika ingufu zihagaze ningufu zishobora kubyara ibyara byinshi aho kuba agaciro kongerewe. Ububiko butuma igisekuru gishobora kuvugururwa mubukungu mubisabwa aho bitari.
Imirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga ubu bitanga amashanyarazi ahendutse kuruta ibicanwa biva mu kirere ku giciro cyagenwe - nko munsi ya $ 23 - 31 kuri MWh ku bikorwa by'ingirakamaro -. Ariko, umwanya wabo wateje ibibazo byo guhuriza hamwe ububiko bukemura. Mugutwara ibisekuru byinshi bishobora kuvugururwa nigihe - kubihindura kugirango bihuze nibisabwa, bateri zifungura agaciro kuzuye kwingufu zihenze.
Hawaii itanga urugero rusobanutse. Kuzana ibicanwa biva mu birwa bitwara amafaranga arenze ibiciro byo ku mugabane wa Afurika. Imishinga ibiri iherutse gukoreshwa n’amashanyarazi ya Hawai ihuza ibivugururwa n’ububiko yageze ku giceri 8 kuri kilwati - kimwe cya kabiri cy’igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa biva mu kirere muri leta. Ibikoresho byo kubika bifasha iyi mishinga gutanga imbaraga zoherezwa kurushanwa hamwe nibisekuru gakondo.
Gukomera umuyaga nizuba biva mububiko byongera igiciro gito. Amashanyarazi yumuyaga agura 2 - 3 cente kuri kilowati, mugihe imirasire yizuba ikoresha amafaranga 10 kuri kilowati kubera idirishya rigufi rya buri munsi. Ndetse hamwe nibi byongeweho, bishobora kuvugururwa - hongeweho-kubika hamwe guhuza kenshi ibisigazwa byibimera.
Ingaruka ya sisitemu yibumbira hamwe nkibishobora kuvugururwa. Buri gigawatt yinyongera yizuba cyangwa umuyaga byongerera agaciro ububiko bwingufu zihagaze mugushiraho ibiciro binini bitandukanye hagati yigihe cyibisekuru gishobora kuvugururwa nubuke. Amasoko afite byinshi ashobora kwinjizwa yerekana ububiko bukora hamwe nubushobozi buhanitse kandi bufata agaciro gakemurampaka.
Icyakabiri - Batteri Yubuzima Ifungura Hasi - Amahitamo
Uburyo bugaragara buragabanya kandi ikiguzi cyo kubika: gusubiramo bateri yimodoka yamashanyarazi kubikorwa bya gride nyuma yuko itagishoboye kuzuza ibisabwa byimodoka.
Bateri ya EV isanzwe isezera mugihe ubushobozi bugabanutse kugera kuri 70 - 80% yumwimerere - biracyahagije kubisabwa bihagaze hamwe ninshingano zidasabwa. Izi bateri zubuzima bwa kabiri zigura 30-70% ugereranije na bateri nshya mumwaka wa 2025, ikigereranyo kiva kuri $ 44-180 / kWt bitewe nigeragezwa, igipimo cyo kuvugurura, hamwe nisoko ryifashe.
Itangwa rya batiri ya kabiri - ryiyongera cyane. Ibiteganijwe byerekana ko bateri ya pansiyo ya pansiyo ishobora kurenga 200 GWh buri mwaka muri 2030 - kuruta icyifuzo cyo guhuriza hamwe ibikoresho bishya - kubika mububiko buke kandi buke cyane. Ibi birema isoko rinini rishobora kuba rifite agaciro ka miliyari 30 z'amadolari kwisi yose.
Amasosiyete arimo Nissan, Renault, na BMW asanzwe akora gride - ihuza ibikoresho byo kubika ingufu zihagaze hakoreshejwe bateri zasubiwemo. Ibikoresho bya Redwood biherutse kohereza 63 MWh ya kabiri - ububiko bwa batiri yubuzima bukoresha ingufu za data, byerekana imbaraga zubucuruzi mubipimo.
Isesengura ry'ubukungu ryerekana bateri ya kabiri - bateri yubuzima irashobora kugera ku gaciro hafi $ 116 / kWt iyo iguzwe ku bushobozi bwa 80% kandi igakora kugeza igeze kuri 50%. Kubashinzwe kubika ingufu, iki giciro cyo kugura gitezimbere ubukungu bwumushinga na nyuma yo kubara ibizamini, kuvugurura, hamwe nogukoresha amafaranga.
Inyungu zubukungu buzenguruka zirenze ikiguzi. Gukoresha bateri ya EV mumasegonda ya kabiri - ubuzima bugabanya ingaruka zidukikije ugereranije no gutunganya vuba mugihe utinze amafaranga yo guta abamotari. Ibi bihindura ibyaba amafaranga yo gucunga imyanda mubiciro bisigaye bishyigikira EV igiciro.
Uburebure - Ububiko bwigihe burafungura igiciro gishya - Kubika Porogaramu
Mugihe bateri ya lithium - ion irusha amasaha 2 - amasaha 6, igaragara igihe kirekire - igihe cyo kubika ingufu (LDES) ikora igihe 10+ amasaha yo gusohora, bikingura amahirwe atandukanye yo kugabanya ibiciro.
Lithium y'ubu - ion ubukungu bukora neza kumagare ya buri munsi - kwishyuza nijoro, gusohora mumasaha yumunsi. Nyamara, tekinoroji ya LDES harimo bateri zitemba, ububiko bwikirere bwagabanijwe, hamwe nububiko bwumuriro bwa adresse ibihe bitandukanye hamwe nibihe byinshi - ibihe byikirere.
Minisiteri y’ingufu muri Amerika yashyizeho uburyo bwo kubika igihe kirekire igamije kugabanya ibiciro 90% mu 2030, igamije $ 0.05 / kWh igiciro cyateganijwe. Mugihe ibiteganijwe byerekana ikoranabuhanga rirenze iyi ntego, gushyira mubikorwa uburyo bwiza bwo guhanga udushya bishobora kuzana amashanyarazi yavomye, kubika ikirere gikonje, hamwe na bateri zitemba munsi ya $ 0.05 / kWt.
Urubanza rwibiciro rukomeza uko igihe cyo kubika cyiyongera. Sisitemu ya 4 - sisitemu ya lithium-ion igura hafi $ 200-250 / kWt, ariko kugeza kumasaha 10 byongera ibiciro kugeza $ 300-350 / kWt kubera ingufu / ingufu zamashanyarazi. Sisitemu ya LDES irashobora kugera kubukungu bwiza mugihe kirekire.
Sisitemu ndende - sisitemu yigihe kirekire ituma impinduka zimbitse za gride. Aho koroshya gusa imitwaro yumurongo wa buri munsi, LDES irashobora gukuraho ibikenewe kugirango ibungabunge ingufu za fosile nkibisubizo byigihe. Isesengura ryerekana igiciro kiboneka - LDES ikora neza irashobora kugabanya ibisabwa kubushobozi bwa gaze gasanzwe hejuru ya 200 GW muri net - zero zero.
Imiterere yisoko nubushake Bwongerera kuzigama
Ibikorwa bya politiki n'ibishushanyo mbonera byisoko bigira ingaruka zikomeye kubiciro - ubushobozi bwo kugabanya kubikwa ingufu zihagaze.
Inkunga ya leta binyuze mu itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga ritanga inguzanyo zo kubika ingufu zidasanzwe, kuzamura ubukungu bwumushinga. Leta - urwego rushobora kuvugururwa rushobora gukenerwa byongeweho, mugihe uturere tumwe na tumwe dutanga manda yihariye yo kubika - Californiya ifite MW 1,325, Massachusetts igamije MW 1.000, naho New York igashyiraho intego ya MW 1.500.
Ubushobozi isoko ryitabira ryongera amafaranga yinjira arenze ubukemurampaka. Sisitemu yo kubika irashobora kugurisha ubushobozi bwabo bwo gutanga ingufu zizewe mugihe cyimpera, kwakira ubwishyu kuboneka hatitawe kubyoherejwe nyabyo. Amasoko amwe yishura $ 50 - 150 / kW-mwaka kugirango yiyemeze ubushobozi.
Serivisi zinyongera zitanga amahirwe - amahirwe yo guha agaciro. Ububiko bwingufu zihagaze neza cyane mugutondekanya inshuro - guhindura byihuse umusaruro kugirango urusheho gukomera kuri gride - kubona ibihembo kubisubizo byihuse. Izi serivisi zirashobora kwinjiza $ 100-300 / kWwumwaka bitewe namategeko yisoko.
Porogaramu y'amashanyarazi ya Virtual ikusanya umutungo wabitswe wagabanijwe, bigatuma ibikorwa byohereza bateri zo guturamo nubucuruzi mugihe cya sisitemu yo hejuru. Ba nyirubwite bitabiriye kwakira ubwishyu mugihe bagabanya sisitemu - ibiciro byinshi. Iyi moderi ihuza inyungu kubakiriya benshi aho kuyihuza na banyiri sisitemu nini.
Igihe - cya - gukoresha igipimo cyerekana uburyo bwo gukemura ibibazo kubakiriya batuye nubucuruzi. Muguhindura ibicuruzwa kuva mubihe bihenze bikagera kumasaha ahendutse nijoro, sisitemu yo kubika ifata 10-15 ku ijana kubitandukanye. Kuzigama buri mwaka $ 500-2,000 birasanzwe mubikorwa byo guturamo, hamwe na sisitemu yubucuruzi yazigamye cyane.
Ibiciro by'ejo hazaza Intego hepfo
Inzira nyinshi zerekana kugabanuka kugiciro cyo kubika ingufu zihagaze kugeza 2030 na nyuma yaho.
Igipimo cyo gukora gitera inyungu zo kwiga. Kwikuba kabiri kubyara umusaruro mumateka bigabanya litiro - bateri ya ion igura 18 - 28%. Hamwe no kohereza bateri kwisi yose igera kuri 1 TWh muri 2024-mucyumweru kimwe kuruta umwaka wose imyaka icumi mbere-umurongo wo kwiga ukomeje kwihuta.
Ubuhanga bwa chimie butezimbere ibiciro nibikorwa icyarimwe. Sodium - bateri za ion zishobora kugera hafi $ 0.31 / kWt igiciro cyo hasi ugereranije nuburyo bugezweho. Kurongora - kunoza aside byerekana ubushobozi busa. Ubundi buryo bugabanya gushingira kumurongo wa lithium mugihe wagura amahirwe yo gusaba.
Gutanga amasoko muri Amerika n'Uburayi bizagira ingaruka ku biciro by'akarere. Mugihe bishoboka kongera ibiciro bigufi - ugereranije n’ibicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa bitumizwa mu mahanga, inyungu z’imbere mu gihugu ziva mu bikorwa bya IRA kandi bikuraho imisoro. Gigawatt nyinshi - inganda za batiri zirimo kubakwa muri Amerika ya ruguru.
Igiciro cyoroshye - kwemerera, guhuza, ubwubatsi, kwishyiriraho - byerekana kwiyongera kubiciro bya sisitemu yose uko ibiciro byibyuma bigabanuka. Ibipimo ngenderwaho, uburyo bworoshye bwo kwemeza, hamwe nuburambe bwo kwishyiriraho byakagombye kugabanya ibyo bice. Ibigereranyo bimwe byerekana ko ibiciro byoroshye bishobora kugabanuka 25-40% muri 2030.
Kuzenguruka - kunoza imikorere y'urugendo bizigama ingufu zikoreshwa kuri buri cyiciro. Lithium y'ubu - ion sisitemu igera kuri 85 - 90%, ariko ibisekuruza bizaza bigamije 92-95%. Iri terambere risa nkaho rito rigira ingaruka cyane mubukungu bwubuzima, kugabanya ibiciro byo kwishyuza no kongera ubushobozi bwingirakamaro.
Ibibazo Bikunze Kubazwa
Ni ubuhe buryo bwo kubika bukenewe ku giciro - kogosha neza?
Ingano ya sisitemu iterwa numwirondoro wawe wihariye wumutwaro hamwe nuburyo bukenewe bwo kwishyurwa. Porogaramu nyinshi zubucuruzi zungukirwa na 100 - 500 kWh sisitemu zishobora gukora amasaha 1-3 yo gusohora kurwego rwo kugabanya umutwaro. Isesengura rirambuye ryamakuru ya interineti yerekana ubushobozi bwiza-mubisanzwe bihagije kugirango ugabanye icyifuzo cya 20-40% mugihe ukomeza amadirishya yubukungu. Ibikoresho byishyura amafaranga asabwa hejuru ya $ 15 / kW buri kwezi muri rusange reba inyungu mugihe cyimyaka 5-7.
Kubika ingufu zo guturamo birashobora kugabanya ibiciro bidafite imirasire y'izuba?
Nibyo, nubwo ubukungu butandukanye bitewe n'ahantu. Inzu ifite igihe - ya - igipimo cyo gukoresha gishobora kunguka mubukemurampaka bwa buri munsi kabone niyo hatabaho izuba ryaka bateri bateri ijoro ryose $ 0.08-0.12 / kWh hanyuma ugasohora mugihe cya $ 0.25-0.40 / kWt. Kuzigama $ 40-100 buri kwezi birashoboka kugerwaho muburyo bwiza. Ongeraho izuba bitezimbere cyane mugukuraho ibiciro byo kwishyuza rwose mugihe ufata ibiciro birinda ibicuruzwa byaguzwe.
Nigute ibiciro byo kubika bigereranywa muburyo butandukanye?
Litiyumu - ion yiganje muri iki gihe ku kigereranyo cya $ 165 / kWt ku isi yose, hamwe n’ibiciro bitandukanye kuva $ 85 / kWh mu Bushinwa kugeza $ 236 / kWt muri bateri yo muri Amerika Flow bigura amadorari 200 - 400 / kWt ariko bikamara igihe kinini hamwe n’amagare atagira imipaka. Umwuka uhumanye hamwe na hydro pompe itanga igiciro gito mubipimo ($ 100-150 / kWt) ariko bisaba imiterere yihariye. Ubuzima bwa kabiri bwa bateri ya EV itanga amahitamo yubukungu kuri $ 44-180 / kWt bitewe nubushobozi busigaye.
Ni ibihe biciro byo kubungabunga bigomba gutegurwa kubikwa bihagaze?
Imikorere ihamye no kuyitaho mubisanzwe ikoresha $ 5 - 15 / kWwumwaka buri mwaka kugirango sisitemu yingirakamaro -, hamwe na sisitemu yo guturamo isaba kubungabungwa bike birenze ivugururwa rya software buri gihe no kugenzura amashusho. Gusimbuza bateri byerekana igiciro kinini cyubuzima - lithium-ion bateri yangirika hafi 2-3% buri mwaka, bisaba gusimburwa nyuma yimyaka 10-15 bitewe nuburemere bwimikoreshereze nibidukikije. Gusimbuza inverter bibaho buri myaka 10-12 hafi 15% yikiguzi cya sisitemu yumwimerere.
Kujya imbere
Kubika ingufu zihagaze bihindura ubukungu bwamashanyarazi binyuze mumicungire yimikoreshereze itaziguye, inyungu za gride sisitemu, hamwe no guhuza ingufu zishobora kubaho. Hamwe nibiciro bigabanuka byihuse hamwe nibisabwa bigwira, ububiko buva mubikorwa bya tekinoroji bijya mubikorwa remezo rusange.
Imibare ikora neza. Sisitemu ya batiri yubucuruzi 500.000 $ itanga 75.000 $ yumwaka wo kuzigama amafaranga mugihe ifata 25.000 $ mumahirwe yubukemurampaka yishyura mumyaka itanu. Shyiramo ubushobozi bwo kwishyura, inguzanyo zishobora kongera ingufu, cyangwa izindi nzira zinjira, kandi kugaruka byihuta kurushaho.
Imyaka icumi iri imbere izabona ibiciro byo kubika bikomeje kugabanuka kugera kuri $ 100 / kWt cyangwa munsi ya sisitemu yingirakamaro mugihe amazu yo guturamo yegera $ 200 - 300 / kWh byose-muri. Kuri ibi biciro, ububiko bwumvikana mubukungu kubikorwa bigenda byiyongera nta nkunga cyangwa ibihe bidasanzwe byamasoko.
Ku mashyirahamwe asuzuma ishoramari ryabitswe, ikibazo ntabwo ari ukumenya niba ikoranabuhanga rigabanya ibiciro - ibimenyetso byinshi byemeza ko ibikora. Ibibazo nyabyo birimo sisitemu ingana, guhitamo porogaramu, nigihe. Hamwe no kuzamura ubukungu no kwagura inyungu za gride, ikibazo cyo kubika ingufu zihagaze gikomeza buri kwezi.