Isi yosesisitemu yo kubika ingufu za batiriisoko ryinjira mubyo abasesenguzi binganda bita "point de inflection point" - interuro ijugunywa kenshi cyane, wenda, ariko muriki gihe ifite uburemere nyabwo. Mu gihe hateganijwe ko igiciro cyazamutse kiva kuri miliyari 13.87 USD mu 2025 kigera kuri miliyari 35.82 USD mu myaka icumi ishize (CAGR igera kuri 20.9%), umurenge wageze kure cyane y’igeragezwa ry’icyiciro - mu buryo bwuzuye -. Niki gitera ibi ntabwo ari umusemburo umwe ahubwo ni ihuriro ryibintu bigezweho bigezweho, imbogamizi zigihe gito zishobora kuvugururwa, hamwe na - iyi yafashe abahanuzi benshi kurinda - amashanyarazi aturika asabwa kuva mububiko bwikigo cya AI.
Ubushinwa (Nimpamvu Umuntu wese Yareba Mongoliya Imbere)
Hano hari ikintu kititaweho bihagije muri raporo yisoko ryiburengerazuba: Ubushinwa bwashyizeho 81 GWh yububiko bwo kubika muri 2024 honyine. Ibyo birarenze kwisi yose hamwe. Reka ibyo bishire.
Politiki yimbere mu gihugu iva mubintu byateganijwe gusubirwamo - ububiko bwombi bugana ku mutungo wigenga wigenga byahinduye cyane ubukungu. Urwego rero - rwiswe "Inyandiko 136" rwashyizeho uburyo bwo guhunika nkabitabiriye isoko ryihariye - bivuze ko ubu bashobora kwinjiza amafaranga binyuze mu kwishyura ubushobozi, ubukemurampaka bw’isoko, hamwe na serivisi zinyongera aho kuba gusa kuko ibiciro byubahirizwa byashizwe kumushinga wumuyaga nizuba.
Intara - inkunga y'urwego ivuga inkuru nyayo. Imbere muri Mongoliya yatangije indishyi z’ubushobozi ku mafaranga 0.35 / kWt hamwe n’ingwate yimyaka 10 -. Gansu yakurikiranye n'amafaranga 330 / kW yishyurwa buri mwaka. Ibi ntabwo ari uguhindura marginal; barimo gukora imyirondoro ya IRR ya 8 - 15% bitewe nahantu hamwe na enterineti. Amasoko yo mu gihugu kugeza mu Gushyingo 2025 yageze kuri 190 GWh - yazamutseho 138% umwaka ushize. Umuyoboro ni munini.
Ariko hariho inkeke ntawe uvuga kumugaragaro. Kugabanya imiyoboro ya gride bikomeje kuba intagondwa mu ntara y’amajyaruguru yuburengerazuba, kandi gutinda kumurongo guhuza bishobora kumara amezi 18-24. Yego rero, amahirwe nukuri, ariko ibyago byo kwicwa ntibyigeze bicika.
Ukuri muri Amerika
Isoko ryo muri Amerika ryerekana ishusho mbi. Igipimo cya Q3 cya Wood Mackenzie cyabanje kwerekana ko bishoboka 11% umwaka - hejuru ya - kugabanuka kwumwaka mugukoresha - uburyo bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa 2026-byo gutanga amasoko, kubabara umutwe wa FEOC, abakekwa bisanzwe.
Noneho "Itegeko rinini ryiza ryiza" ryemejwe.
Kwinjira muri ITC bikomeje kuba ntamakemwa. Gukora selile zo murugo biragabanuka (buhoro, bihenze, ariko bipima). Kandi mu buryo butunguranye, umwaka wa gatanu - uko umwaka utashye wasimbutse 15%. Gukubita ibiboko byigisha: politiki idashidikanywaho muri Amerika ntabwo ari urusaku - ni impinduka nyayo ishobora guhinduranya gigawatt - ibipimo byateganijwe byoherezwa n'imibare ibiri.
Igishimishije mubyukuri, nubwo, ntabwo arigice cyingirakamaro. Nibibera hamwe na AI - iterwa no gukura kwimitwaro. Morgan Stanley avuga ko gukoresha amashanyarazi mu kigo gishobora kurenga 20% by’amashanyarazi akenewe muri Amerika mu 2030.Ibikoresho bikenera ingufu zizewe, zoherezwa - kandi bakeneye vuba. Imiyoboro gakondo ntishobora gutanga ubushobozi bushya bwo kohereza vuba bihagije. Imirasire y'izuba - hiyongereyeho - ububiko kandi inyuma ya - metero - metero ya BESS ibaye igisubizo nyacyo.
Tegereza 2026 kubona hafi GWh 80 zoherejwe muri Amerika, hamwe na AI - porogaramu zegeranye zitanga ahantu hafi ya 37 GWh. Numubare wasaga nkutumvikana mumyaka itatu ishize.
LFP Ubutware nuburebure - Ikibazo cyigihe
Lithium fer fosifate chimie ifite iri soko. Ikiringo. Ifite hafi 90% yubushobozi bwububiko bwashyizweho kwisi yose, kandi uwo mugabane ntugabanuka vuba aha. Iterambere ryinshi ryingufu, ubuzima bwikirenga burenga 6000 byikuzimu kuri 80% byubujyakuzimu, hamwe nipaki - igiciro cyamanutse munsi ya USD 115 / kWh cyakoze ubundi buryo budafite akamaro kubisaba amasaha 2-4.
Imiterere ya 314 Ah na 628 Ah niho ibikorwa biri. Ibintu binini bigabanya ipaki - urwego rugoye, kunoza imikorere yumuriro, no munsi $ / kWh kurwego rwa sisitemu. CATL, BYD, EVE Ingufu - bose basunika muri iki cyerekezo.
Ariko hano niho bigenda bishimishije.
Sisitemu enye - sisitemu zirahinduka kumeza. Isoko ryimuka mugihe kirekire. Ibisobanuro byamasoko bigenda bisaba 4 - isaha - hiyongereyeho iboneza, kandi ibyo bitera ibibazo nyabyo kuri lithium - ion ubukungu mubipimo. Urashobora gutondekanya selile nyinshi, byanze bikunze, ariko ibiciro byigishoro ntibipima umurongo hamwe nigihe cya Li-ion nkuko bakora kuri bateri zitemba.
Sisitemu ya redox itemba igera kuri USD 1.50 / Wh - iracyahenze, ariko ubuzima bwa 15, 000+ burigihe burahindura LCOS kubara rwose kubisaba amasaha 6 - 8. Imishinga yo mu kirere ifunzwe mu ntara ya Hebei irerekana 70% kuzenguruka - ingendo nziza. Sodium - ion irinjira mubushyuhe buke aho lithium irwanira.
Nta na kimwe muri ibyo gisimbuza LFP vuba aha. Ariko imiterere yikoranabuhanga irimo gucamo ibice muburyo butari buteganijwe nubwo hashize imyaka ibiri.
Ifumbire Ifatika Ibintu Byiza
Kuki kontineri?
Modularity. Ubwikorezi. Imigaragarire isanzwe. Igihe cyihuse cyo kohereza.
Ububiko bwa metero 40 - ISO ifite 5 MWh yububiko bushobora gukorerwa muri Jiangsu, ikoherezwa i Rotterdam, igashyirwa kurubuga rwa brownfield, hamwe na gride - ihuza ibyumweru bitarenze amezi. Gucomeka - na - gukina ubwubatsi - bateri, BMS, PCS, imicungire yumuriro, kuzimya umuriro, byose byahujwe - bigabanya cyane ibikorwa byubwubatsi.
Gukonjesha amazi byabaye itegeko cyane kurwego rwo hejuru -. Abaderevu bakonje kwibiza birakomeje. Sisitemu yo kuzimya umuriro ikoresheje ibikoresho bya aerosol aho gukoresha amazi gakondo - uburyo bushingiye ku buryo bugenda bwiyongera nyuma y’ibintu byinshi byo hejuru - byerekana uburyo bwo guhunga amashyuza byazamuye amafaranga y’ubwishingizi mu murenge.
Ibintu bidashimishije cyane: sisitemu ya kontineri iracyafite imbogamizi zikomeye zemerera imijyi na peri - imijyi. NFPA 855 kubahiriza byongera 15-25% kubiciro byishoramari muri Amerika. Ibipimo by’umutekano w’ibihugu by’i Burayi biratandukana bitewe n’ububasha mu buryo bubangamira iterambere ry’ibicuruzwa bisanzwe. Ibi ntabwo aribibazo bidashobora gukemuka, ariko ni friction itinda umuvuduko wo kohereza.
Tanga urunigi rukomeye muri 2026H2
JP Morgan yerekana urugero rwa Lithium yerekana ko BESS izakoresha hafi 30% ya lithium ku isi mu 2026, ikazamuka igera kuri 36% mu myaka icumi - iherezo. Icyo ni ikintu gikomeye ku bicuruzwa bikomeza gutangwa - nubwo hari ubushobozi bushya bwo kuvoma buza kuri interineti muri Ositaraliya, Chili, na Arijantine.
Ibiciro bya karubone ya lithium yahagaze neza hafi USD 950 / t nyuma yimpanuka ya 2023, hamwe nu murongo wimbere werekana USD 1,300 / t muri 2027. Niba ibyo aribyo biterwa ahanini ninzira zisabwa n’ubushinwa ndetse n’uko ihungabana ry’ibicuruzwa bya DRC ryerekeza kuri nikel - manganese - cobalt chimies zikoreshwa mububiko bumwe na bumwe.
Inganda zikora selile zirimo gukora cyane. Igihe cyambere cyo kubika icyiciro cya 1 - selile zo mucyiciro zimaze amezi 6 - amezi 9. Sisitemu ihuza sisitemu ifunze - mumasezerano yo gutanga - Sungrow, Tesla, Fluence-bifite inyungu zifatika kurenza abanywanyi bato bahatanira kugura amasoko.
Ibintu birashoboka ko byoroha mumpera za 2026 mugihe ubushobozi bushya bwa gigafactory bwiyongera, ariko H1 izaba ikomeye.
Uburayi: Gucamo ibice ariko Gukura
Ububiko bwububiko bwubudage burangije kwihuta - 24 GW iteganijwe muri 2037 ukurikije gahunda ya TSO. Ubwongereza bukomeje kuyobora ku masoko yo gusubiza inshuro. Espagne n'Ubutaliyani birabona iterambere ryihuse ryiterambere ryimishinga iterwa nubukungu bwagabanijwe hamwe nuburyo bwo guhemba ubushobozi.
Ariko dore ikintu kijyanye nu Burayi gitakara mu mibare rusange: gucamo ibice bikomeza kuba inzozi. Imiyoboro ya gride iratandukanye. Amafaranga yinjira ashoboka aratandukanye cyane nisoko. Ibikora mu Buholandi ntabwo byanze bikunze bisobanurwa muri Polonye.
Amasoko yo mu Burayi bwi Burasirazuba aragaragara - yiteze ko izamuka rikomeye muri Rumaniya no mu Bugereki kugeza mu 2026-2027 uko ibisabwa bigenda byiyongera. Ariko ibi ni bito byuzuye kuruta ibibera muri Amerika cyangwa mubushinwa.
Intego ya 200 GW yo kubika muri 2030 irakomeye. Niba bishoboka kugerwaho ukurikije igihe cyagenwe hamwe na gride ihuza ibirarane bikomeje kutamenyekana.
Ubucuruzi & Inganda: Igice kidashimwa
Umuntu wese yibanze kubikorwa - igipimo. Birumvikana - imishinga nini, itangaza makuru riratangaje. Ariko ububiko bwa C&I niho marge ikurura kandi niho umuvuduko wo kohereza ushobora kwihuta.
Kogosha cyane kumitwaro yinganda. Gusaba gucunga amafaranga. Imirasire y'izuba - gukoresha neza. Imbaraga zinyuma zisimbuza moteri ya mazutu.
Californiya ya Net Billing Tarif yihutishije kwinjiza ubucuruzi. Massachusetts SMART 3.0 gahunda irimo gutwara izuba - ibikoresho byo kubika. Illinois gusubizwa ibyubaka amaherezo bigenda byiyongera.
Ubukungu buroroshye: niba amafaranga yawe asabwa arenga USD 15-20 / kW buri kwezi, amakaramu yo kubika hanze. Ibikoresho byinshi byubucuruzi bisiba iyo mbago neza.
Ububiko bwa C&I ku isi buteganijwe kwiyongera 92% muri 2025, bugera kuri 19.7 GWh. Iyo mbaraga itwara 2026 na nyuma yayo. Afurika - cyane cyane porogaramu yo kwimura mazutu - yerekana amahirwe adasobanutse rwose abayashinwa bake batangiye gukurikirana.
Ibyingenzi Mubyukuri muri 2026
Wibagiwe umutwe witerambere uteganijwe kumwanya muto. Dore icyerekana niba abakinnyi ku giti cyabo batsinze:
Umutekano wo gutanga selile.Amasosiyete adafite amasezerano maremare - igihe cyo gufata ibyemezo hamwe ninganda zo mu cyiciro cya 1 azaharanira.
Ubushobozi bwa software.Gupiganwa algorithms kumasoko ya serivisi yinyongera, leta - ya - igereranya ryubuzima, kugereranya ibyateganijwe - ibi bitera itandukaniro ibicuruzwa byibikoresho bidashobora gusiba.
Impapuro zingana.Inkunga yumushinga isaba impande zombi zinguzanyo. BESS - nka - a {{3} models Moderi ya serivisi (ABB yatangije imwe muri Gicurasi 2025) igaragara neza kubera ko ibyangombwa bisabwa imbere bikomeje kuba inzitizi.
Gutandukana kwakarere.Kurenza urugero kububasha bumwe bwo kugenzura ni akaga bitewe na politiki ihindagurika.
Ibigo byahagaze neza - Sungrow, CATL, BYD, Tesla, Fluence - bifite ibyuho mubipimo byinshi. Intangiriro ntoya ihura nigitutu cyo guhuriza hamwe. Ntabwo aribyo bitekerezo; bimaze kuba.
Igitekerezo cya nyuma
Uru ruganda rufite imyumvire yo guhumeka neza rimwe na rimwe ihisha ibibazo nyabyo. Gutinda guhuza imiyoboro ya interineti ntibisiba. Ibibazo byumutekano, nubwo bidasanzwe, bitanga ibisubizo byateganijwe. Litiyumu itanga inzitizi nukuri, ntabwo yahimbwe. Ihindagurika ryibiciro byibicuruzwa bigira ingaruka mubukungu bwumushinga muburyo bukosora - igiciro PPA imiterere ntishobora gukingirwa byuzuye.
Kandi nyamara.
Abashoferi shingiro - ibyangombwa bisabwa byo kwishyira hamwe, ibikenerwa byokwizerwa bya gride, amashanyarazi, imigendekere yimbaraga za data - ntabwo ari cycle. Zifite imiterere. Iterambere rya 40-50% Sungrow nabandi bateganya muri 2026 ntabwo bishoboka. Birashoboka ko ari abagumyabanga.
Ububiko bwavuye kuri "tekinoroji ishimishije" yerekeza kuri "ibikorwa remezo bikomeye" byihuse kuruta abantu bose babihanuye. Amezi 18 ari imbere azagena ibigo bifata iyo nzibacyuho nibisigara inyuma.